Cognitive biases and cognitive correction in the evaluation system for thyroid ablation therapy

The rapid adoption of thermal ablation in the field of thyroid treatment contrasts sharply with the lag in understanding its therapeutic effects. For many years, the rate of reduction in the size of the ablated area has been considered a key measure of efficacy. However, this approach has led to a series of conclusions and decisions that contradict the facts of pathology. Based on the “two-stage theory” developed by the team in 2025, the article explores these issues step by step, starting with identifying the cognitive biases that frequently occur in evaluations of treatment outcomes. It then examines the underlying logical flaws, such as the failure of homogeneous assumptions, misalignment between temporal causes and effects, and confusion over the distinction between primary and secondary factors. Finally, the article offers practical principles for clinical thinking that can be utilized in similar situations. The article focuses on…