NYC Congestion Charge in the Public Eye: How Opponents and Supporters Consistently (Mis) perceive Public Support

Across six survey waves, we examined perceived public support for the New York City congestion charge among New Yorkers ( n wave1 = 1,460, n longitudinal = 361). Consistent with the false-consensus effect, opponents underestimated public support across all six waves, whereas supporters appeared relatively well calibrated. Opponents with more like-minded others in their social networks underestimated public support to a greater extent, while associations with media exposure were weak and inconsistent. To test a possible corrective intervention, 938 participants assessed supporters’ or opponents’ beliefs about public support (i.e., third-order beliefs). This perspective-taking task did not correct misperceptions; among opponents, it worsened them. Our findings highlight the persistence of misperceptions about climate-policy support, the role of social networks in shaping them, and the limits of perspective-taking as a corrective tool. Understanding these dynamics may help practitioners seeking to foster support for sustainability transitions.